Estimated Fed net liquidity (assets minus Treasury cash and reverse repos, plus lending facilities). Rising values imply easier liquidity; falling values imply tighter conditions.

Trade-weighted U.S. dollar index versus emerging-market currencies. Higher readings mean a stronger USD, which can weigh on risk assets.

Business activity index used as a growth proxy. Rising values suggest stronger momentum; falling values suggest cooling activity.

Regression-based BTC fair value driven by net liquidity. Dotted lines show the 1 and 2 standard deviation bands around fair value.

Consensus fair value anchor built from macro and on-chain models. The outer lines are volatility-scaled bands for over/under-valuation.

Machine-learned fair value from macro inputs. Dotted bands show 1 and 2 standard deviation ranges around the fair value line.

Machine-learned fair value from liquidity inputs. Dotted bands show 1 and 2 standard deviation ranges around the fair value line.